TD 0183 - Investigating the Causes of the Recent Brazilian Trade Surpluses

João Victor Issler e Ricardo Costa Gazel / Rio de Janeiro, dezembro de 1989

This paper investigates the recent boom of the Brazilian trade surplus by estimation a partial adjustment model for exports and imports. The results indicate that the exports quantum is basically explained by the income of the rest of the world and by the gap of domestic output. The role of the exchange rate seemed to be negligible and sometimes contradictory vis-à-vis economic theory. The imports quantum depended solely on the evolution of the real exchange rate, and domestic output fluctuations did not impact imports

Acesse o documento (1.14Mb)